Contemporary researchers believe that competitive intelligence is linked to foresight. On the one hand, foresight is designated as a key component of competitive intelligence. On the other hand, foresight is an area of research related to competitive intelligence. If we turn to international practice, competitive intelligence becomes on a par with such components of strategic analysis as foresight and business analytics.
Foresight (“foresight”) is a technology and communication format that allows participants to agree on the images of the future, as well as, having determined the desired one, to coordinate actions in its context.
If we talk about Foresight as a global research project, then this methodology goes back to the 1950s. It was developed in the United States by the RAND Corporation (a US Strategic Research Centre commissioned by the US government and Armed Forces), after which it spread to South Korea, Japan, and other countries. At first, it was a complex and expensive forecasting technology, within which a huge number of experts worked for months. Now there are many different modifications of Foresight, some of which are successfully used in competitive intelligence.
A number of studies have noted that competitive intelligence and foresight do not just complement each other, but largely overlap. Many analytical methods of foresight are also used in competitive intelligence. In both cases, a significant part of the information comes from third-party experts and secondary external sources, after which it is synthesized with internal knowledge. The collected array is analyzed and used to support the adoption of key management decisions related to corporate or business strategies, research and development, the creation of new products, and market entry.
In turn, the European Foresight Platform (EFP) considers Foresight as a systemic participatory (jointly combined) process of accumulating information about the future and determining medium- and long-term prospects for decision-making support and the preparation of operational joint actions. In the context of this definition, competitive intelligence and foresight can be considered a combined discipline, including “collecting information about the future”. The integrated program, which synthesizes foresight, competitive intelligence, and business analytics, reduces the level of uncertainty and security risk, as well as increases the likelihood of the target audience adopting the proposed policy and early identification of opportunities.
Foresight is not so much forecasting as designing. It is based on the understanding that the future is variable and directly depends on the efforts made. Therefore, the main question of foresight can be formulated as follows: “What should we jointly do now in order to come to the desired option for the future?”. In this regard, foresight sessions involving experts often turn out to be a more effective tool than, for example, a simple extrapolation of past data for the future.
In addition, an important role in the foresight process is played by the assessment of events with a low probability, but a large potential impact on the future of the area under study. The coronavirus pandemic is a vivid example of such an event, they are called “black swans”. “Black swans” are bifurcation points (changes in the steady-state operating mode of the system) determined during discussions during foresight sessions. They are also called “jokers” or “wild cards”. It is important to understand that such events very rarely break trends or change them—most often they reinforce them.
Within the framework of any foresight, an analysis of trends and developing technologies is currently carried out in a certain industry, which is very important in the process of conducting competitive intelligence. When such a change map emerges, it can be predicted what the trend development will lead to in the future. And it always turns out that changes are beneficial to someone and a threat to someone (similar to how competitive intelligence analyses market changes in terms of their impact on competitors). The roadmap created for the market situation is not static; it must be revisited and revised on a regular basis, taking into account what happens in the market.
In general, correctly selected instruments (tools) and technologies of competitive intelligence form a universal system that allows the company's management to respond promptly to changes in the situation on the markets, assess risks and opportunities, predict them, and, as a result, make effective management decisions.
In addition to considering the main technologies and tools of competitive intelligence, as well as the basics of foresight, it is also advisable to disclose modern practices, approaches to evaluation, procedures, and applied aspects of competitive intelligence.
In more detail about the main tools of competitive intelligence in the book - "Competitive intelligence in the management system for critical infrastructure facilities, corporations, and financial institutions". The book highlights the modern strategic guidelines for the development of competitive intelligence in a globalized world, considers competitive intelligence as a tool for ensuring the security and management of critical infrastructure enterprises, companies and banks, and also describes modern information and analytical technologies and tools of competitive intelligence. The book can be used to discuss a wide range of problematic issues related to the assessment of the quality (value) of information in competitive intelligence and the evaluation of its effectiveness, guarantees of the quality of the received information due to the impossibility of manipulation by installing information filters, as well as regarding the transformation of the results of competitive intelligence to provide managers critical infrastructure enterprises, companies and banks in order to make adequate and effective management decisions.
Foresight (“foresight”) is a technology and communication format that allows participants to agree on the images of the future, as well as, having determined the desired one, to coordinate actions in its context.
If we talk about Foresight as a global research project, then this methodology goes back to the 1950s. It was developed in the United States by the RAND Corporation (a US Strategic Research Centre commissioned by the US government and Armed Forces), after which it spread to South Korea, Japan, and other countries. At first, it was a complex and expensive forecasting technology, within which a huge number of experts worked for months. Now there are many different modifications of Foresight, some of which are successfully used in competitive intelligence.
A number of studies have noted that competitive intelligence and foresight do not just complement each other, but largely overlap. Many analytical methods of foresight are also used in competitive intelligence. In both cases, a significant part of the information comes from third-party experts and secondary external sources, after which it is synthesized with internal knowledge. The collected array is analyzed and used to support the adoption of key management decisions related to corporate or business strategies, research and development, the creation of new products, and market entry.
In turn, the European Foresight Platform (EFP) considers Foresight as a systemic participatory (jointly combined) process of accumulating information about the future and determining medium- and long-term prospects for decision-making support and the preparation of operational joint actions. In the context of this definition, competitive intelligence and foresight can be considered a combined discipline, including “collecting information about the future”. The integrated program, which synthesizes foresight, competitive intelligence, and business analytics, reduces the level of uncertainty and security risk, as well as increases the likelihood of the target audience adopting the proposed policy and early identification of opportunities.
Foresight is not so much forecasting as designing. It is based on the understanding that the future is variable and directly depends on the efforts made. Therefore, the main question of foresight can be formulated as follows: “What should we jointly do now in order to come to the desired option for the future?”. In this regard, foresight sessions involving experts often turn out to be a more effective tool than, for example, a simple extrapolation of past data for the future.
In addition, an important role in the foresight process is played by the assessment of events with a low probability, but a large potential impact on the future of the area under study. The coronavirus pandemic is a vivid example of such an event, they are called “black swans”. “Black swans” are bifurcation points (changes in the steady-state operating mode of the system) determined during discussions during foresight sessions. They are also called “jokers” or “wild cards”. It is important to understand that such events very rarely break trends or change them—most often they reinforce them.
Within the framework of any foresight, an analysis of trends and developing technologies is currently carried out in a certain industry, which is very important in the process of conducting competitive intelligence. When such a change map emerges, it can be predicted what the trend development will lead to in the future. And it always turns out that changes are beneficial to someone and a threat to someone (similar to how competitive intelligence analyses market changes in terms of their impact on competitors). The roadmap created for the market situation is not static; it must be revisited and revised on a regular basis, taking into account what happens in the market.
In general, correctly selected instruments (tools) and technologies of competitive intelligence form a universal system that allows the company's management to respond promptly to changes in the situation on the markets, assess risks and opportunities, predict them, and, as a result, make effective management decisions.
In addition to considering the main technologies and tools of competitive intelligence, as well as the basics of foresight, it is also advisable to disclose modern practices, approaches to evaluation, procedures, and applied aspects of competitive intelligence.
In more detail about the main tools of competitive intelligence in the book - "Competitive intelligence in the management system for critical infrastructure facilities, corporations, and financial institutions". The book highlights the modern strategic guidelines for the development of competitive intelligence in a globalized world, considers competitive intelligence as a tool for ensuring the security and management of critical infrastructure enterprises, companies and banks, and also describes modern information and analytical technologies and tools of competitive intelligence. The book can be used to discuss a wide range of problematic issues related to the assessment of the quality (value) of information in competitive intelligence and the evaluation of its effectiveness, guarantees of the quality of the received information due to the impossibility of manipulation by installing information filters, as well as regarding the transformation of the results of competitive intelligence to provide managers critical infrastructure enterprises, companies and banks in order to make adequate and effective management decisions.